C_NCENTRATE - The next era...

Focused on the emerging side of things; technologies, territories, tools, strategies and ideas. Written by TBD Group (intelligence products, advisory, and events).

Thank you for all the emails, DMs, shares, and kind words about C_NCENTRATE. I am blown away by all of them, and finding out what C_NCENTRATE has meant to some of you over the years is extremely humbling and inspiring.

As C_NCENTRATE moves firmly into its ‘convergence’ era, it will be changing. Fear not, you’ll get the same analysis, insights, hand-picked links, and more, but I’m changing the pricing structure (trust me, you’ll like it). Oh, and we’re having a slight refresh with the brand and layout as well. Make sure you set your alarm for 7pm next week…

Thanks for your C_NCENTRATION.

Paul.

PS: A few of you asked for tips about writing every week so I pulled them together into a Thread here or LinkedIn if that’s more your jam (no judgements).

ELON OVERPROMISES, STOCK NOSEDIVES

Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ turned out to be more like ‘We, Suck,’ showing us just how far the company is from the future it keeps promising. Investors were left equally unimpressed, with Tesla’s stock dipping plummeting by $60 billion in market value after the reveal of the Cybercab, a two-seat, steering-wheel-free taxi meant to redefine urban mobility.

For a company that has long been perceived at the forefront of EV innovation, this event was a sobering reminder that promises without execution will not fail to make you look like the Wizard of Oz. Here’s what was announced: a taxi (Cybercab - the investment bank Jefferies called it a “toothless taxi”), a van (Robovan) and an updated version of the (should be way better by now) Optimus robot:

It’s not long, watch the whole thing here, and don’t book Musk for your TED talk prep:

Suffice to say, the event landed poorly. What +3.3m live viewers got was a two-seater car that seems to have doors that won’t last long in most city traffic, a still-fake robot, and a naff party van that isn’t replacing a bus anytime soon. Critics, analysts, and even the general public took to social media to lampoon Musk’s overly optimistic timelines and the glaring lack of substance behind his bold claims.

Elon Musk has built a persona of omnipotence through grand spectacles and ambitious promises. However, when it comes to the details, particularly with this robotaxi announcement, it feels like there’s little substance behind this Oz-esque curtain. The hype overshadowed the lack of concrete advancements, made Musk appear more like a tired showman pulling levers and holding the key to the liquor cabinet at a party rather than a visionary delivering results. Tesla obviously spent millions on this and yet, the baying masses - even the tech press bros - aren’t buying any of it. The Cybercab design? Better suited for a Blade Runner cosplay convention than for today’s urban gridlock. Timelines? Absurd. Remember the endless delays with Cybertruck? Yeah, expect more of the same. And those robots? They were literally being steered off-stage by humans. Westworld without the style, and in this case, autonomy is entertaining, but we’ve seen it…ten years ago. Where’s the progress, Elon? It’s not like X marks the spot…

Tesla is a company in trouble. Sure it may look good from the outside (ish), but there are problems within. What Elon didn’t mention is that four of his direct reports, including the CIO and the global vehicle automation and safety policy lead, resigned right before Tesla's robotaxi event. Not cute. Aside from this, competitors - namely Waymo in the US - are out there doing all this for some time and haven’t put their CEO in the position where public safety execs don’t want to screw over the guy who runs at walls. Waymo quietly and effectively are expanding its autonomous vehicle operations, already offering real rides in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix. By comparison, Tesla’s announcement is less like a leap forward and more like a desperate attempt to keep up. Hence the 9% stock drop.

Tesla’s technology just isn’t there. The video of Asimo from 10 years ago begs the question ‘why is Tesla still using remote controlled devices on a closed/controlled environment?’ Meanwhile, China’s EV and autonomous driving ecosystem is quietly roaring ahead. Companies like Baidu and Xpeng are rapidly deploying advanced autonomous technologies in real-world settings, with Baidu’s Apollo Go already offering robotaxi services in multiple Chinese cities. China’s regulatory environment is more conducive to real-world testing, giving these companies a significant edge in data collection and iterative development. Tesla, on the other hand, is still playing catch-up. Its reliance on cameras for autonomy, while competitors like Waymo and Baidu use more advanced sensor suites (including LiDAR), is proving to be a technological dead end. LiDAR has consistently demonstrated better performance in real-world conditions, yet Musk stubbornly refuses to adopt it. Meanwhile, Tesla’s demonstrations remain in controlled environments, far removed from the messy, unpredictable reality of city streets.

SO WHAT?

Tesla’s technology is starting to feel like vapourware—a far cry from the revolutionary disruption it once promised. Not what Elon had in mind when he did this two weeks before third quarter earnings call... Tesla’s misstep speaks to a larger trend in the tech industry: the challenge of maintaining hype while delivering tangible progress. Musk has built an empire on visionary ideas, but the lack of concrete, deliverable results is starting to erode trust, especially in a space as competitive as autonomous vehicles. Waymo’s clear lead in autonomous driving (let alone Chinese rivals) casts a long shadow over Tesla’s ambitions, and if Tesla doesn’t pivot to more realistic expectations or deliver something substantial soon, its position as an actual industry leader will likely dry up.

The broader implications go beyond Tesla. Autonomous vehicles are poised to reshape urban life, from transportation networks to job displacement. Yet, for all the hype, practical, widespread deployment remains out of reach. The question now is: who will truly lead this revolution? Companies like Waymo, which prioritise steady, incremental advancements, seem far better positioned than Tesla to lead the charge.

__ DO __

Redefine. Expectations when it comes to innovation can be hard to temper. It’s easy to forget how much change can happen in a lifetime, but equally visionary ambition into operational excellence is hard. Autonomous vehicles are no longer a futuristic novelty; they require proof of scalability, regulatory readiness, and business model validation. Demand capabilities, not bro-totypes.

__ DON’T __

Dismiss. Alternative disruptions could be the future. Musk’s robotaxi vision is one of many. Keep an eye on incremental disruptors, such as companies pioneering AI for vehicle-to-infrastructure communication or firms enhancing vehicle electrification beyond cars. Some of the most powerful shifts in mobility could emerge from adjacent technologies, not just autonomous driving.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
Q: Most people aren't paying for AI tools yet. Are you currently paying for any AI tools? If not, what’s holding you back? 32% are paying for AI tools, 18% think they’re too complex or are too costly. 27% worry about data privacy.

Have influencers gone too far with live hurricane clout chasing on TikTok? /6 mins

‘CheekAge’ is the epigenetic tool you’ll been (not) dying to test out…. /4 mins

Getting old can suck, but at least you can now have beautiful things to help you get into the shower. /3 mins

A look inside the world’s first commercial space station and the vibe is minimal. /10 mins

Yuval Noah Harari believes AI is not a tool but an alien, and will take over human systems from within. /38 mins

Whatever happened to ‘Net Zero’? /7 mins

Scientists have found a species of comb jelly (yup, me neither) that can fuse together after injury. /5 mins

São Paulo is having a police influencer problem. /7 mins

Smart tiny homes are having a moment, but for $95k shouldn’t they withstand more than a category one hurricane? /5 mins

Australia will soon require mandatory reporting of ransomware payments, most countries don’t have this yet. /5 mins

The meme manifesto project is a work of art. /20 mins

Finally, all the XOXO 2024 videos are now up. In case you aren’t familiar, it’s TBD alum Andy Baio’s annual curation masterclass. I cannot urge you strongly enough to mark serious time out of your calendar to watch every single one. Passion, nerdiness, attention. Especially this one by Cabel Sasser (Panic). Warning: does not end how you think it will...

---

C_NCENTRATE is part of TBD Group.

Advisory, intelligence products and events that help clients understand what around the corner. We’re helping people right now with strategic advice, reviews, business development, pitch refinement, and training. How would you like us to ensure you stay ahead of competitors?

Let’s find out.