Introducing the new C_NCENTRATE. I’ve added a more intuitive layout, with expanded the links section and put it above the main analysis, along with new charts, graphs, a ‘more resources’ section, and a brand new monthly editorial/AMA call. I’ve also made the switch to light mode for a cleaner reading experience on mobile and desktop. Oh, and there’s a neuroscience-backed playlist to help tune your brainwaves for better focus.
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Introducing the C_NCENTRATE playlist. Curated by neuroscientists aid encoding and recall, ‘Focus’ features tracks from minor5, eden, Portal Plan and more.
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Like hybrid/electric vehicles, Barcelona's subway system now use regenerative braking technology to convert the energy from stopping trains into electricity. /6 mins
Greece is going to invest €20 billion by 2035 in incentives like cash benefits and tax breaks to counter its declining birth rate, which is among the lowest in Europe. /4 mins
De-extinction company, Colossal, claims it has nearly completed the thylacine genome. /5 mins
Why employees really aren’t speaking up is bad for everyone. /11 mins
Chinese researchers at Shanghai University say they've inched towards cracking military-grade encryption. /3 mins
Are smart glasses going to monitor your food intake? These do ↑. /11 mins
Why corporate wellness programs don’t get better results. /8 mins
↑ Worldcoin is now…err… World. Sam Altman’s ID company is going to need more a lot more orbs. /3 mins
X updated its privacy policy to allow third-party collaborators to train AI models on your data unless you opt out. /5 mins
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: Q: Will Cybercabs kill traditional car ownership, or will they remain a niche service? A: This question split you. 33% think they will be niche forever, another 33% believe a big disrupt but ownership will survive. 22% believe car ownership is dead in 10 years. 11% says popularity is only based on government pressure.
NETFLIX GIVES A MASTERCLASS IN BUSINESS MANOEUVRING
Netflix delivered a sterling Q3 financial performance, growing revenues by 15% and adding over five million new subscribers. The platform’s ability to monetise its user base through its ad-supported tier and crackdown on password sharing is reshaping the streaming landscape and will impact a lot of lives more than the price of their monthly subscription. But, the key question is where to go next?
In many ways, Netflix is the epitome of the TBD framework, how the company leverages technology (AI), content (behaviour) and pricing (data) to stay dominant is almost chef’s kiss good. All this said, the company isn’t without issue. First though, some context, +280m subscribers (mainly US still), ad-tier added (boooo), and a decent range of content that points north on the iMDb ratings scale. What’s not to love? Competition for one, click these and take a look at what’s staring back at Netflix execs every day:
So is this a one-off bump? Possibly, but Netflix forecasts 2025 revenue of $43B-$44B, which would be 11%-13% higher than its 2024 guidance, and targets a 2025 operating margin of 28% vs. 27% in 2024. Netflix is also doubling down on their deal structure and theatrical release strategy. Stock is up 7% as a result. However, Netflix remains under constant threat, but their slate and technology is solid. In the broader context, Netflix’s ‘evolution’ signals an industry shift from pure subscription model to hybrid strategies. Competition in streaming is fierce, and content behemoths (read: Prime Video) are now scrambling to balance quality, growth with profitability, all while managing the rising costs of content production and distribution. With AI-driven content curation, ad-based revenue streams, and shifting consumer behaviours, the stakes for tech giants, advertisers, and consumers have never been higher. Netflix's recent moves (and these results) will ripple across the global tech and media ecosystems and boardrooms.
Netflix’s Q3 results are a masterclass in pr/business manoeuvring. The platform not only added over 5 million new subscribers, but its ad-supported tier contributed to over 50% of those signups, proving that what was once seen as a "budget option" is now core to its growth strategy. The pivot comes in the wake of Netflix's ‘controversial’ (aka: people worry about people paying for things they value) crackdown on password sharing, which many analysts predicted would alienate Netflix’s user base. Instead, the strategy has proven wildly successful, reinforcing the platform’s value proposition while expanding its audience. Some economic forces at play here, but still, incredibly impressive.
Now with over 282 million paid members, Netflix is driving revenue growth in markets traditionally resistant to price hikes by offering flexibility in ad-supported models. The hybrid approach might well be the future of all major streaming services. Competitors like Disney+ and Max are likely taking notes, particularly as Netflix’s ad-tier momentum gains traction. Expect, sigh, more ads if you can’t afford to say ‘no, thanks’.
But there’s more to the story than just bonkers subscriber numbers. The company is leveraging data at a scale that competitors find difficult to match. From AI-powered recommendations to algorithmically optimised ad placements, Netflix remains a data-driven beast masquerading as an entertainment platform. Netflix’s ability to cross data with content has been pivotal in its success—helping to drive engagement and retain users even as subscription costs rise. Netflix’s ad-supported tier saw a 35% growth quarter-on-quarter, positioning it as the go-to platform for brands eager to capture attention in a crowded media space.
That said, it’s not all smooth sailing now or in the future. There are growing concerns about the sustainability of this growth, particularly as execs hinted at slower future growth, attributing it to saturation in key markets. Guidance like that introduces a more complex narrative: while Netflix is far from stagnating, the road ahead is not without bumps. The entire market is projected have CAGR of 21.9% from 2024 onwards driven by Asia-Pacific. The pie may look carved up now, but there’s a rich reward for anyone who can steal a bigger slice (merch, licensing, live, sports, content diversification like conferences). Competitors armed with massive IP libraries, such as Amazon and Disney, are rapidly evolving their own strategies. Both have USPs that Netflix does not have (parks, delivery etc) and is unlikely to want to grow. The battle-lines may have been drawn, but that’s not stopping anyone in this market.
Netflix’s growth makes it clear: hybrid subscription and ad-supported models are the future of streaming. Consumers demand affordable options, and brands crave targeted audiences. Netflix, having mastered both, is perfectly positioned to lead. With AI reshaping Hollywood and new production hubs rising, Netflix’s future success will require more than just good content—it needs technological innovation and bold new revenue streams, like micropayments.
AI-driven content creation is on the horizon, but can Netflix balance algorithmic production with creative storytelling? Meanwhile, expect the company to dive into live sports and immersive content through AR and VR. The industry is consolidating fast, with smaller players likely to be swallowed up or left behind, as Netflix leverages its size to stay dominant.
Global expansion remains key, with Netflix continuing to invest in local content to dominate markets like India and Africa. However, challenges like China’s regulatory barriers persist. Ultimately, Netflix’s future lies in redefining what streaming means—through innovation, content, and its ability to set trends others can’t match. Can anyone repeat its previous disruption play? Never impossible, but unlikely.
__ DO __
LOCALISE. Just as Netflix (and Prime Video) has by hoovering up local content left and right. Both know that tailoring content to local tastes and cultural nuances is essential to staying relevant worldwide. Use tools like Smartling, Lokalise, and Unbabel.
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OVER-RELY. AI-driven algorithms completely dominate the streaming user experience and some stress patterns are showing. While useful, a heavy reliance on algorithmic content recommendations can trap users in echo chambers, limiting content diversity, and reducing user satisfaction over time.
Paul makes emerging technologies accessible and actionable for people. He helps companies stay ahead of disruption whether that’s major platforms, or disruptive technologies like AI through TBD Group.
As author of ‘Disruptive Technologies’, he has over 20 years of experience guiding brands and agencies to outplay competitors. His client roster includes industry leaders like Google, Coca-Cola, Panasonic, PwC, and Omnicom. When tech news breaks, he’s a trusted voice for insights at the WSJ, FT, CNN, and BBC, and he contributes to outlets like The Information and Cool Hunting.
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