C_NCENTRATE 921: Meta VR/AR roadmap leak, bioprinting, bad Q3 for startups, no AI secrets, +++
META’S AR/VR ROADMAP FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
THE OVERVIEW: TikTok got spanked again for its new filter that encourages unrealistic [Ed: putting it mildly] beauty standards. OpenAI launched an API, Jack Dorsey (yup, that Jack) launched a new Twitter, the FDA rejected Musk’s wetware human trial request, there were more Twitter layoffs, Coinbase, Circle, Paxos, Crypto.com, Bitstamp, Cboe, and Gemini all suspended business operations with Silvergate (US Lender), which reported being “less than well-capitalized”. Awwwwwwwkward and not the news crypto needs right now.
THE BIG NEWS: Meta showed staff its roadmap for AR/VR this week. While the more cynical amongst you may think this is just softening up stakeholders and media…know that it’s also to stop the brain drain and wandering eyes. The documents say that Meta wants to get its first set of smart glasses out in 2025, with a perkier pair (sporting full AR) will be out in 2027. Meta is still cost-cutting and attempting to bolster its reputation on multiple fronts.
2023 has a lot planned for VR; Quest 3 (more powerful, thinner and a bit more expensive than Quest 2). Quest 3 (codenamed ‘Stinson’) will be mixed reality but not as hardcore as Quest Pro. It’s the “stay in there longer” issue that may are baulking at; right now, at least, Meta can’t get the basic unit on people’s heads. With 8 game studios under their belt in the past four years alone, stickiness looks like a chunky issue for Meta. AR, on the other hand, seems to be popping in 2025. Meta execs said third-gen versions of smart glasses will have multiple useful applications you’ve read about before; real time translation, text message reading and QR code scanning.
Then there’s the “neural watch”. Meta has been public about their vision for AR glasses to be worn throughout the day and have some sort of wrist control device that, they say, will replace the smartphone. According to Alex Himel, VP of VR for Meta: “We don’t want people to have to choose between an input device on their wrist and smartwatch functionality that they’ve come to love,” he said. “So we are building a neural interfaces watch. Number one, this device will do input: input to control your glasses, input to control the functionality on your wrist, and input to control the world around you.” Fret not, you’ll still get all the ads you love. Himel believes the company can make more average revenue per user than social media selling virtual goods, optional add-ons and pure AR ads. For the stock price, let’s hope he’s right.
SO WHAT?
__ DO __ Know that Meta has almost sold 20 million units (confirmed by Mark Rabkin, Meta’s VP, VR). For some context, that’s about the same number as the number of Xbox X/Ss sold. There’s a market there, it’s just not ginormous yet. // __ DON’T __ Ignore Meta cutting prices for Quest Pro to $1000 and Quest 2 to (256GB) to $430. The multiverse won’t be ready anytime soon and must be much stickier (Meta’s own words). All this said, don’t sleep on it; learn the lessons you need to know now and figure out what you’ll need to know soon.
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